Living 48 Real Estate Team

We’re in the midst of the longest economic expansion in U.S. history, and economists think there’s still room to grow. A recent survey by the National Association for Business Economics found that experts believe the U.S. economy will remain positive throughout 2020. 1 Still, given that recessions are a natural (and necessary) part of a business cycle, we know this period of growth will inevitably end. So you may be wondering … how will an eventual recession impact the real estate market? Many Americans assume a recession would lead to a decline in housing prices like we saw during the Great Recession of 2008. But the real estate market crash we experienced wasn’t typical. In fact, the last recession wasn’t typical at all. It was the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s. ATTOM Data Solutions analyzed real estate prices during the last five recessions and found that, in the majority of cases, home prices actually went up. Only twice (in 199...

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Credit for graphic: Chris Butterworth and Simple MLS Charts I ran across this great graphic that did a great job of telling the story of the seasonality in the Arizona Real Estate market and how it correlates to the days a house is on market before it is sold. There are a couple of things I want to point out before we jump into my thoughts on this. First, please take note that this is looking at the last 3 year’s trend. Second, by way of explanation, the orange downward sloping line is the trend line and the blue line with the dots are the actual data points that represent a recorded closing for each month. The dates are along the bottom and the days on market are noted on the left side of the chart. So with those items established, let’s jump into explaining what we are looking at here. So as we are looking at the chart we can see a very gradual trend overall towards shorter days on market (orange line), but within that is some very obvious seasonality trends. Look at Janu...

One of the most frequent questions I get is: "When is the best time to buy or sell a home?" I’ll give you my thoughts on this in a second. But first, I want to challenge the idea that there is a “best” time to buy or sell. Here’s why: Mortgage rates jump around Mortgage rates fluctuate daily, much more quickly than the overall housing market. And even a small change in rates could mean a large difference in real home prices — whether you're selling or buying. These changes are unpredictable, making it hard to ever be sure of a “best” time to buy or sell. But that’s not all. Statistics only tell part of the story National and state real estate trends are the averages of millions of different transactions. When you boil them down to a few numbers, lots of details get lost. The fact is, home prices and demand can vary county to county, neighborhood to neighborhood, and even home to home. While it's nice to have a simple indication of where the real estate market is...

If you are the owner of a luxury home here in Arizona, you may be wondering why you haven’t seen the same appreciation in the median sales price of your home’s value. Here’s a great chart and explanation of why that is. Thanks to Chris Butterworth for this information. Median Median Price of Luxury Homes Remains Flat This is a very deceiving chart. We know that prices have risen over the last 3 years, and we know that the luxury market has grown during that time as well. So why hasn’t the median price increased? It’s because of these two reasons that the median price hasn’t changed. Rising Prices: Yes, a 20% increase means that $2,000,000 house is now worth $2,400,000. And that $1,500,000 home would be priced at $1,800,000. And of course, the $1,000,000 home increases to $1,200,000. Growing Market: This 20% appreciation also means the $900,000 home is now worth $1,080,000, and the $835,000 home is worth $1,002,000 today. These “lower priced” luxury homes weren’t part of the m...

National Snapshot: What’s Ahead for Real Estate The U.S. unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, and consumer confidence remains high. In fact, the University of Michigan’s latest Surveys of Consumers found that Americans have their most positive personal finance outlook since 2003.1 However, if you follow national news, you’ve probably heard speculation that we could be headed toward a recession. Global trade tensions and a slow down in the GDP growth rate has sparked volatility in the stock market, leading to economic uncertainty. Given these differing signals, you may be wondering: How has the U.S. housing market been impacted? Where is it headed? And more importantly … what does it mean for me? MORTGAGE RATES ARE NEAR HISTORIC LOWS In August, Freddie Mac reported that the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit its lowest level since November 2016, falling to 3.6%, down a full percentage point from a year earlier.2 Variable mortgage rates also fell when the Federal Reserve cut...

We talk about the seasonality of the market quite frequently. I want to thank Chris Butterworth for preparing this chart and explanation to share with you. This shows in a visual way, exactly what we are talking about! Let me know if you have any questions on this or anything else in the real estate subject area. I’m here to be a resource to you! Maricopa County Seasonal Sales Volume The seasonality in the Maricopa County real estate market couldn’t be more obvious, or consistent. Lots of sales in April, May and June; not as many in December, January and February. The highs have risen slightly higher each year, but the lows have gotten lower as well. Overall volume per year has remained relatively level over the last 3 years: up slightly in 2017 and then flat in 2018 and 2019 YTD. - Chris Butterworth * All chart data represents single-family detached homes only. Information is believed accurate but not guaranteed.